Quarterly Market Update True North Market Commentary
What Business Owners Need to Know
True North’s perspective on the merger and acquisition markets is shaped by first understanding the market for transactions of all sizes, followed by a sharp focus on the lower middle market transactions between $10 million and $250 million in enterprise value.
For transactions of all sizes, Q1 2026 was a quarter of recalibration. Deal count rose 6% year-over-year, but transactions moved down-market with sponsors deploying 7% less capital. Capital remains available for the right businesses, but the bar is higher than it was 90 days ago.
Two forces drove this down-market shift: rising energy prices and interest rate expectations tied to renewed Middle East conflict, and a sharp reset in software valuations driven by AI uncertainty. Together, they pushed institutional capital toward more “traditional” assets including manufacturing, infrastructure, utilities, and other physical operation businesses.
Deal Activity: More Transactions, Less Capital
Across all deal sizes, Q1 2026 closed with approximately 2,415 U.S. PE transactions totaling $260 billion, which is a 6% increase on count but 7% decrease in value year-over-year. Add-ons represented 76% of all buyouts, reinforcing that sponsors continue to value businesses that can serve as building blocks within a broader portfolio.
What this means for Business Owners: Buyers are active and the pool is wide, but diligence is more demanding. Clean financials, a clear growth story, and management continuity are no longer a “nice to have” for a buyer, they are the price of entry.
Shifting Interests: Capital Moves Toward Hard Assets
The traditional business sectors described above captured 31.2% of all U.S. PE capital in Q1, which is more than double the 10-year average of 14%. Energy alone drew $54.8 billion, more than three times the Q4 2025 level. The AI debate is pushing institutional capital toward businesses that cannot be bypassed by the next model release.
What this means for Business Owners: If your business is built around physical operations (manufacturing, distribution, infrastructure, utilities-adjacent services), you are operating in the strongest sponsor demand environment in a decade. This window may not stay open indefinitely, but it is a tangible pricing advantage right now.
Middle Market Valuations: What Your Business is Worth
GF Data recorded 80 completed transactions in Q1 at an average of 7.3x EBITDA — the first quarter in over a year where both deal count and pricing rose together. Sector trends shifted sharply:
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Manufacturing led at 7.2x, up from 6.6x in 2025, with the strongest quarterly deal count in more than a year.
- Healthcare Services held at 8.5x.
- Business Services softened to 7.0x from 7.3x - its first meaningful decline in three years.
- Technology continued to fall, averaging just 5.2x, reflecting the AI valuation reset.
The most important data point: platforms averaged 7.6x while add-ons averaged 6.5x — the widest spread GF Data has reported. How your business is positioned matters as much as what your business does.
What this means for Business Owners: Don’t anchor to 2025 comps if your sector has moved. The single most powerful valuation lever in the current market is demonstrating platform-readiness: management depth, repeatable operations, and a clear path for a buyer to grow the business after close.
What to Watch
Recession odds rose from 24% to 35% over the quarter. Rates and energy costs moved higher. None of this has closed the market, but investment committees are working harder and diligence processes are taking longer.
Owners with platform-grade businesses or businesses in manufacturing, infrastructure, utilities, and other physical operation spaces should expect a competitive process. Owners whose story relies on customer concentration, cyclical leverage, or pre-2022 growth comps should plan for more structural questions. The gap between quality and average has widened, and preparation is now the most controllable variable.
February 2026
80/20 INC. | COLUMBIA CITY, INDIANA
Littlejohn & Co. acquired 80/20 Inc. from MPE Partners in February. 80/20 manufactures premium configurable modular framing solutions across more than 8,500 SKUs, serving automation, productivity, and safety applications. The deal reflects ongoing sponsor appetite for specialty industrial businesses with proprietary product lines. Terms were not disclosed.
Source: PR Newswire
February 2026
FUNCTIONAL DEVICES | SHARPSVILLE, IN
L Squared Capital Partners acquired Functional Devices, a manufacturer of relay and control solutions for building automation and emergency lighting, best known for its RIB (Relay in a Box) product line. Existing leadership co-invested and will continue running the business. L Squared has identified the company as a platform for add-on acquisitions. Terms were not disclosed.
Source: Business Wire
April 2026
TRUE NORTH PLUMBING AND HEATING CLIENT SELLS TO STRATEGIC PARTNER
True North Strategic Advisors, LLC represented a Midwest-based Plumbing & Heating service client that was acquired by a strategic partner. This transaction is reflective of considerable activity in the residential and commercial home services market, with robust activity in the Plumbing, Heating, and Electrical sector.